After a 25-year bull market in stocks, which was fueled by a 25-year decline in interest rates and a period of great financial leveraging that accompanied collapsing interest rates, a Phase I bear market (often referred to as the first down-leg) brought stock prices down sharply.
From its high of 14,164 in October 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crashed to 6,440 by March 2009—a 55% drop. This phase of the secular bear market is behind us.
A Phase II bear market (often referred to as the “rebound,” “bounce” or “sucker’s rally”) started in March of 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen about 100% since March 9, 2009.
The bear market has been doing an excellent job during this current phase of luring investors back into the stock market. Phase II bear markets give investors the false impression that the economy has turned the corner and that stocks are a safe bet again—exactly where we are today. This phase of the secular bear market is still upon us.
Given that 2012 is a Presidential election year in the U.S., given that the government and the Fed have fought the natural forces of this bear market tooth and nail, the bear market rally, the “bounce” in this secular bear market, has been long.
Phase III of the secular bear market is when stock prices come crashing down again, bringing stock prices down to the point at which the Phase I bear market started or lower—in this case, 6,440 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, about 50% below where the stock market sits today.
Yes, I’m sure many of my readers are sitting there, reading this, and thinking this can’t happen. I also understand that I’m one of the few stock market analysts out there with this opinion. But history is history. What I have explained above, the stark reality of where we are with the stock market, is how a secular bear market works.
The government can take on as much debt as it likes ($5.0 trillion and counting since President Obama took office) and our central bank can increase the money supply as much it wants (an increase of about $2.0 trillion since the credit crisis began). But too much debt and too much money printing always lead to rapid inflation and higher interest rates.
The natural forces of a secular bear market will eventually play themselves out.
Michael’s Personal Notes:
There is no question in my mind that the Chinese economy …
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