Financial

Assessing The Impact - On Gold Purchases, For Central Banks

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The latest analysis involving of central bank reserve managers shows a major modification within their “official” reserve holdings. It appears this major modification extends well into the next decade.  The change is a deliberate increase of gold accumulation within the holdings of central banks.

Currently were already seeing central banks acquiring larger amounts of gold bullion. Gold bullion reserves that were reported have surpassed 439.7 tons last year. This is seen as the largest annual increase in nearly 50 years, which does not include any major un-reported purchases during this time. It is well-known that many central banks have snapped up tonnage when market prices are at near bottoms on market corrections.

Official gold holdings for the central bankers reported to the IMF were recently released. These holdings have increased by 49.8 metric tons in March alone. Total holdings had increased to 55.1 metric tons during the first four months of 2012. Unofficially, the actual quantity of gold reserves will be greater. Because several countries including China and others as they did not report or make public any recent gold bullion purchases.

For this year, March was seen as a very significant month for many central banks to acquire gold. Of the central banks who did report their purchases to the IMF, it was Mexico who became the most significant buyer of bullion for March. Mexico added an additional 16.8 tons of bullion on top of the 98.8 tons they bought in 2011 thus rounding out Mexico’s total bullion supply to 115.6 tons. Turkey also added 11.5 tons to their reserves. Russian increased its gold supply with 15.6 tons for March and then added one additional ton within the first three weeks of April while Kazakhstan acquired 4.3 tons of gold for March.

Just as private investors, central banks themselves will turn to gold for protection of currency debasement and devaluation of fiat currencies such as the US dollar and the euro. Gold is only one of a few financial assets that are free of counter-party risks. Central banks will hold this as a safe haven asset because it is also free from any confiscation or political risks. Iran and Venezuela who have been under political risks from economic sanctions, sent home some or all of their gold bullion reserves, held in vaults at the Bank of England last year.

Globally, the total amount of gold reserves official reported was 31,000 metric tons, or 997 million ounces. The total gold mining output globally per annum is 2,218 metric tons or 90 million ounces. Clearly, if we compare these, we can see that it would only take a very small change in central bank holdings to greatly apply upwards pressure on the market prices for the metal. From 1989 through 2009 official records show approximately 15 percent to 20 percent of net gold sales contributed to market supplies annually. It is possible to envision this additional supply would create a substantial negative impact towards the metal’s price.

Equally central bankers in recent years are changing gears. They are now transforming into net buyers and not net sellers. Again, this action has positively affected the price of the metal. It is a safe bet to say that official gold accumulation will keep expanding now and for several years to come. Leading the pack, are China and Russia. A large number of central banks are now low in physical gold, yet heavy in both dollars and euro’s. These banks are all lining up and purchasing bullion to add to their reserves.

Saudi Arabia purchased a large amount of gold in June of 2011. 180 metric tons, however they never officially reported the transaction. In all likelihood, the Saudi Arabia Monetary Authority will remain buying quietly, alongside other oil producing nations. Saudis and others are in-fact heavily invested in US dollar denominated assets and are severely in short supply of gold bullion. Mexico was one of the largest buyers last year. They are also America’s next door neighbor to the south and a major trading partner. Mexico is interested in increasing its precious metal reserves which could be seen as a global sign that “faith is being lost” in the US dollar.

Along with Mexico, several other Latin nations are buying.  Bolivia, bought seven tons in February, Colombia and Venezuela have also been buying more bullion, on top of their repatriated gold bullion that was previously held by the Bank of England. Several other countries are gearing up too, as faith in the US dollar is going down. Countries like Bangladesh, Belarus, Mauritius, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Turkey are all active buyers.

All the while, the ECB back in the 1990s was a huge seller of the precious metal. The European central bank managed to cut their bullion stocks to almost nothing. Almost all the gold bullion they have left is used to fill orders for commemorative coins.

There is actually a good reason for nations such as China, Saudi Arabia and others not to report gold bullion purchases. Because many of these central banks already hold extremely too much US dollar or euro reserve assets. They choose to make their purchases in private because when news comes out about their buying programs, the yellow metal’s price will likely increase. This would effectively increase their acquisition costs.

Notably, a large percentage of gold bullion that central bankers have bought is long-term. It will more than likely not be held short (in terms of years) but rather held long (in the terms of decades) which would coincide with much higher prices. Their now is upside favoritism upon markets being created by the central bankers. This effectively reduces the free-floating market that would allow future demand to meet at even greater market prices. As a result, investors can look forward to reduced downside instability and a prolonged bull market that will bring with it greater prices in the years to follow.

Tom Genot -

About The Author:

Informational news, books, articles and videos on investing in gold and silver and where the best places are to buy it. You will also find informational resources to educate you on alternate forms of investing and information on preparedness, for preparing and protecting you, your family and your assets from the pending economic crises and destruction of the US dollar. Author Tom Genot provides information and resources helpful to everyone. Insure you're prepared, while time is still on your side. Check us out at www.coinbullion.net.

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